Cross River Intelligence Archives

Greetings, GDP for Q1 2018 rose 2.3% annualized, down from 2.9% in Q4 2017. The 2.3% reported for Q1 2018, is slightly higher than the Federal Reserve’s long-term potential rate. GDP  can be decomposed into the product of labor and labor productivity (from technology or trade. As the US enters the late-stage of the economic cycle, full employment combined with flat productivity growt ...

Greetings, Retail sales rose by 0.6% MoM in March, driven mostly by a rise in auto sales. Retail sales only rose by 0.2% QoQ, after the 2.5% increase seen in the fourth quarter. Sluggish retail sales growth has the potential to derail US GDP growth which has been led by consumer spending. Bank earnings’ season is underway, and Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley reported ...

Greetings, The US economy registered a strong inflation print with core CPI rising 2.1% YoY in March. The inflation reading bolsters the Fed’s case for raising rates twice more in 2018. With the first quarter earnings season underway, Citi, JPM and Wells Fargo reported earnings that either met or beat expectations, as financial market volatility boosted trading revenues. JPM posted all ...

Greetings, US payrolls rose by 103,000 in March and the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. Average hourly earnings rose by 2.7% which should keep the Fed on track to raise interest rates twice more this year. Rising interest rates are putting pressure on consumers by increasing monthly payments on variable rate credit cards and mortgage products. A steep rise in interest rates would put a damp ...

Greetings, US GDP growth for the 4th quarter was revised upwards from 2.5% to 2.9%, capping an impressive 2017. Consumer spending has driven the bulk of GDP growth and it will be relevant to see if this trend continues given the weak retail sales in Q1 and softening in some leading economic indicators. Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator rose 1.8% YoY in February. Personal s ...