Cross River Intelligence Archives

Greetings, US CPI (ex Food and Energy) rose a modest 2.1% YoY in April. Including the rise in volatile oil prices, total CPI rose by 2.5% YoY. Market participants continue to anticipate higher inflation and rate hikes. The latest reading caused the US treasury yield curve to flatten to its lowest level since August 2007. An aggressively flattening yield curve is an indicator of recession and so ...

Greetings, The US economy added 164,000 jobs in April with the unemployment rate dropping to 3.9%, the lowest since the peak of the dot-com bubble in early 2000. Traditionally, 3.9% has signaled the bottom of the unemployment rate, although this recovery has been slower and longer than the recovery of the 90s. In an encouraging sign, average hourly earnings increased by 2.6% YoY fueling the Fed ...