by Vy Phan | Mar 24, 2019 | Blog
Greetings, For the first time in 3,000 days, and with much anticipation, the 3-month and 10-year treasury curve inverted. The median time to a recession after this curve inverts is between 1 to 1.5 years. However, unprecedented interventions such as QE (and higher...
by Vy Phan | Mar 17, 2019 | Blog
Greetings, US consumer inflation (ex food and energy) rose by 2.1% YoY in February. The inflation print is consistent with the Fed’s 2% target and should keep them on a “wait-and-see approach” to raising rates later this year. Retail sales rose by 0.2% MoM in January,...
by Vy Phan | Mar 10, 2019 | Blog
Greetings, The unemployment rate dropped to a near five decades low of 3.8% even as nonfarm payrolls only rose by 20K. Average hourly earnings rose by 3.4%, above economists’ expectations. The Fed is on hold and is watching incoming data to determine the timing of the...
by Vy Phan | Mar 3, 2019 | Blog
Greetings, The U.S. economy grew by 2.6% in 4Q2018. Growth was driven by business investment indicating faster growth in the future. The Fed has adopted a patient approach to raising interest rates and will watch incoming data to make future rate hike decisions. There...
by Vy Phan | Feb 24, 2019 | Blog
Greetings, Minutes from the January Fed meeting released this week showed uncertainty over whether the Fed will raise rates at all in 2019. The Committee was also in favor of ending the reduction in assets on the Fed’s balance sheet. Global growth is slowing, and US...
