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Previous Newsletters
Jobs Numbers Surprise; COVID-19 Impact on Credit Scores; Financials
by Tito Donis | Jun 7, 2020
Greetings,This week, we cover the big jobs numbers surprise; loosening of PPP requirements in DC; and continued growth of the “buy now, pay later” providers in our industry.Reflecting on Recent EventsBut before we get started, a word on what’s been happening in the...
Forbearance Levels Off; House Expands PPP; UBS Launches FinTech VC
by Tito Donis | May 31, 2020
Greetings,This week, we cover the growing evidence of economic recovery; a big win on Madden-Midland; and, FinTech financing news. PeerIQ is also pleased to roll-out a loan delinquency and forbearance module - check out the screenshot below and reach out to learn...
The Recession Is Over; Forbearance Gaming At 70%; Goldman Bulks Up
by Tito Donis | May 24, 2020
Greetings,To our U.S. readers, happy Memorial Day weekend.Thank you for spending your precious time with us.In macro news, it’s time to make the call.The Recession is Over. What’s Next?We suggested in our prior newsletters "That This Time Is Different.” The...
Retail Sales & E-Commerce; Payment Priority Surprise; Banks Shifting to Digital
by Tito Donis | May 17, 2020
Greetings, This week, we look at the rising tide of initial unemployment filings and its follow-on impact to retail sales, data on forbearance to charge-offs or cures, an appeal by MLA’s Nat Hoopes to include unsecured personal loans in the Fed’s TALF program. Let’s...
LendingClub Earnings; PayPal Resilient to COVID-19; Square 4x Reserve Build
by Tito Donis | May 10, 2020
Greetings,The jobs report confirmed that 20.5MM jobs were lost in April. The U.S. has never lost more than 2 million jobs in a single month.Weekly jobless claims this past Thursday show an additional 3.1MM jobs were shed for total job losses of 33.5MM. Retailers and...
OnDeck Earnings; OneMain Liquidity; Loan Mods Ramping
by Tito Donis | May 3, 2020
Greetings,Equity markets continued its levitation act, posting the strongest gains since January, 1987.Here are a few statistics to dimension what is happening in the real economy:Weekly jobless claims hit 3.84MM, topping 30MM jobs lost over 6 weeks.We estimate the...
Loan Forbearance Data; 1099 vs. W-2 Re-Think; Stripe/SoFi Deals
by Tito Donis | Apr 26, 2020
Greetings, The collapse in demand continues to ripple across markets. U.S. weekly jobless claims hit 4.4MM, bringing job losses to 26MM. Oil spot prices went negative. Electricity prices went negative in France. Mortgages went negative in Denmark. (And it’s not too...
When Recession Ends; The Over/Under on Banks and DQs; PeerIQ’s Lender Handbook
by Tito Donis | Apr 19, 2020
Greetings,Asset prices continued to leap higher this past week. The Nasdaq is positive for the year. IG corporate credit spreads have closed the gap to pre-COVID-19 levels.Orphaned sectors outside the Fed liquidity “bear hug” - parts of the CLO market, community bank...
Don’t Fight the Fed 3.0, Inside SoFi Deal, Upgrade Launches POS
by Tito Donis | Apr 12, 2020
Greetings,The S&P 500 capped off its best week since 1974 and the Dow posted its best week since 1933. Equity and credit risk assets rallied due to another round of Fed market interventions, despite a staggering 6.6MM in new unemployment claims. Peter Renton and...
Market Improvements; Contrarian View on U.S. Consumer; SBA PPP Program Holes
by Tito Donis | Apr 5, 2020
Greetings,This week, we focus on changes in macro estimates and improvements in market fundamentals. We also share a contrarian view on the performance of consumer credit. Let’s get to it.Unemployment Estimates Ratchet Higher (Again)In macro news, the unemployment...